I would tend to agree with you if you're only thinking about the US but 3rd world countries are a totally different ballgame.
There was a Nokia video out last week about the year 2015 and what mobile would look like at that point. While none of it was revolutionary what struck me the most was the thought that BILLIONS of people are going to begin making the kind of money necessary to get a smartphone in the next decade. Those 'phones' are going to be their only computer, their only access to the internet, and their only device that would allow application development.
If we, using the royal hacker we, could develop a mobile or web-based development environment that worked on mobile devices it could enable a new population of developers that dwarfs the number of devs we have in the world now. I would be surprised if the number of mobile applications developed on mobile devices was extremely high in the 3rd world in the next decade.
There was a Nokia video out last week about the year 2015 and what mobile would look like at that point. While none of it was revolutionary what struck me the most was the thought that BILLIONS of people are going to begin making the kind of money necessary to get a smartphone in the next decade. Those 'phones' are going to be their only computer, their only access to the internet, and their only device that would allow application development.
If we, using the royal hacker we, could develop a mobile or web-based development environment that worked on mobile devices it could enable a new population of developers that dwarfs the number of devs we have in the world now. I would be surprised if the number of mobile applications developed on mobile devices was extremely high in the 3rd world in the next decade.