I was not surprised at the rise in production, I spent my college years driving by the old rare earth mine at Mountain Pass[1] but what really surprised me was that China totally blew it on this. They had a near monopoly on the production of rare earths, and if they had just moved the prices up slowly, I believe they would have captured far more value before it triggered a ramp up of external suppliers.
[1] Las Vegas to LA and back. Got out to look around once when the workings were basically abandoned but decided against it after seeing all the radiation warning signs :-)
China totally blew it on this. They had a near monopoly on the production of rare earths, and if they had just moved the prices up slowly, I believe they would have captured far more value before it triggered a ramp up of external suppliers.
I think this is a valuable observation with respect to how well the Chinese government works with regards to long term decisions.
[1] Las Vegas to LA and back. Got out to look around once when the workings were basically abandoned but decided against it after seeing all the radiation warning signs :-)