(1) As the ROI on R&D falls, R&D will be drastically cut and the industry will become even more commoditized. Less R&D spending means chips get cheaper.
(2) Capital equipment will last longer because it won't need to be replaced with new versions every couple years. Fewer equipment purchases means chips get cheaper.
(3) As performance/$ wanes, demand will fall in the short term. At first prices may crash if capacity is overbuilt, but in the medium term, production will stabilize at a smaller level than before. Because of economies of scale, prices will be higher at this smaller scale. (I believe this is what happened to the RAM market a few years ago.) This force may cause chip prices to rise.
(4) As software continues to improve, the value of chips will rise, even as the chips themselves stagnate. This will cause the market to grow, and economies of scale will drive prices down.
(5) As has been happening for years, the industry will continue to consolidate. Less competition between producers will mean higher profit margins and higher prices.
Overall, (1), (2), and (4) will lower chip prices and (3) and (5) will raise chip prices. But I think the overall trend will be lower prices, though perhaps not as the drastic rate to which we've become accustomed.
(1) As the ROI on R&D falls, R&D will be drastically cut and the industry will become even more commoditized. Less R&D spending means chips get cheaper.
(2) Capital equipment will last longer because it won't need to be replaced with new versions every couple years. Fewer equipment purchases means chips get cheaper.
(3) As performance/$ wanes, demand will fall in the short term. At first prices may crash if capacity is overbuilt, but in the medium term, production will stabilize at a smaller level than before. Because of economies of scale, prices will be higher at this smaller scale. (I believe this is what happened to the RAM market a few years ago.) This force may cause chip prices to rise.
(4) As software continues to improve, the value of chips will rise, even as the chips themselves stagnate. This will cause the market to grow, and economies of scale will drive prices down.
(5) As has been happening for years, the industry will continue to consolidate. Less competition between producers will mean higher profit margins and higher prices.
Overall, (1), (2), and (4) will lower chip prices and (3) and (5) will raise chip prices. But I think the overall trend will be lower prices, though perhaps not as the drastic rate to which we've become accustomed.