I tend to go back to this article when I discuss these markets with people https... | Hacker News

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jvanderbot 3 months ago | parent | context | favorite | on: Looking at the data behind prediction markets

I tend to go back to this article when I discuss these markets with people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd ... in particular, these markets are designed to tease out the "surprisingly popular" answer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surprisingly_popular because they incentivize divergence from average response.

airstrike 3 months ago [–]

You'll note from "Challenges and solution approaches" that it comes with significant caveats and is easily undermined.

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