On a long enough timeline, everything is disposable. And what is "disposal", really? How many LED bulbs are actually getting properly recycled, and isn't it true that the materials in incandescent bulbs are less harmful, relatively speaking, than those in LEDs?
I have never heard of anyone recycling an incandescent bulb, but recycling bulbs became a big deal with CFLs came out and most people seem to be in the habit in the area I'm in. Store have bulb take-backs for CFL/LED in the entryway, for example.
I don't like LED bulbs, but I think they clearly win the disposal/economical argument against incandescent in every way. Unfortunately they blink and have poor color reproduction in many versions.
It feels like there is increasing availability of LEDs with higher CRI (90+) and low/zero flicker then there used to be.
However, if you're like my parents, they buy lots of very cheap LED bulbs which fail quickly and flicker a lot, because since they fail so often, nice ones are too expensive.
I buy bulbs that cost a bit more up front but have less flicker (undetectable to me when waving a hand under them), higher CRI, and last longer.
Then you might should reframe your question to the approximate # of incandescent bulbs a person would buy during the typical lifetime of an LED bulb. On the low end, it's 20.
Don't forget the costs & emissions related to manufacturing and transporting all twenty of those incandescent bulbs.
As much as I like the old bulbs, they're unlikely to "win" in this question unless you are wanting to ignore the major lifespan difference.
Economically speaking, one can go to Dollar Tree and spend $1.25 and get a two pack of LED bulbs that will save 38 other bulbs from the manufacturing stream and landfill. Seems obvious?
I think the environmental impact arguments are valid, but also it seems silly that they have us arguing about light bulbs when every single car on the road in the US is now some giant SUV and our built environment is actively hostile toward humans walking to go about their daily lives. Like, are the two incandescent bulbs in my Brooklyn living room the problem, or the giant suburban home eating meat 3x per day driving to Dollar Tree to buy junk?
As someone that has never owned a car, is vegetarian, and walks/subways everywhere, I kinda feel like what's the big deal if I use a few incandescent bulbs every year in my small NYC apartment?
To be clear, I have no issue with it, I'm just responding to you.
Incandescents can be bad in lots of categories but if they make you happy, that's a huge plus. Some categories are much more important than others.
I'm lazy and prefer not to change bulbs multiple times a year... but the warm light is lovely when I do use a classic bulb. I live in a warm environment and hate the heat they add, but in your climate perhaps it is nice much of the year.
On a long enough timeline, everything is disposable. And what is "disposal", really? How many LED bulbs are actually getting properly recycled, and isn't it true that the materials in incandescent bulbs are less harmful, relatively speaking, than those in LEDs?