High interest rates. If Fed dropped them to 0 overnight, everyone on the list would have happily hired everyone back. But then the grocery prices would start growing faster than SPX.
Loans and bonds are typically at fixed rates and have months or years-long terms. As you reissue bonds and take out new loans, your overall interest rate on debt approaches the much higher market rate. It doesn't happen immediately.
Expecting interest rates to drop later this year is big for the stock market, which runs on expectations, but doesn't matter to people borrowing money and issuing debt before then, since you cannot attract lenders at rates below the US treasury yield.
rates market only somewhat accurately prices the next fed meeting, after that it's anyone's guess and the far out rates are priced to basically fed inflation target anyway. that doesn't mean the price isn't accurate now, it's just not necessarily what it'll be when the fed meets.
