Absolutely. HN has an abysmal track record of predicting the success or failure of most innovations, because it tends to over-estimate the importance of the technology itself and under-estimate the power of marketing to overcoming challenges in adoption. This is why I make no prediction whatsoever at this early stage - we know very little about it.
It’s not just marketing but also confusing our preferences with the market as a whole. For example, AirPods are not as good as my over ear headphones … but they’re impressively close and the AR features are quite effective. Based on flat sales for traditional headphones and huge sales for AirPods, they clearly targeted the much larger group who don’t value audio quality more than everything else.
