This opens lots of cool possibilities such as eliminating the need for two cars in the family for example. You go to work, the car then comes back and drives the wife and then later in the afternoon when both parents are working it goes to school and picks up the kids!
My guess is that we will have a very efficient Taxi system. Using a Smart Phone you will be able to request a Taxi where ever you are; it will already know your favorite locations; your favorite music; it will automatically charge you; we will not need so much parking space.
I just hope that this goes into effect in a way that you would signal how many people will be traveling together and they send the appropriate sized car. Having every vehicle on the road seat 5 people and luggage when it is rarely at full capacity is extremely inefficient.
Riding alone? If so, they send a 1 person vehicle to pick you up. Riding with a friend? Two person vehicle. etc.
Sounds like a YC company in the making! In all seriousness, there will be some great business opportunities here. It will open up an entirely new market.
I always thougt companies like Uber were really positioning themselves and building the tech necessary for when this inevitably happens.
Right now they need humans to drive their cars around but as soon as they can they will surely shift to automated cars. If they've already built the scheduling systems necessary they'll be able to combine that with the mindshare they've been building and be in a great position.
Wow. I never thought of that, but you're absolutely right.
Uber is Netflix in 1997, sending DVDs through the mail to people's mailboxes, carefully awaiting the day when the technological infrastructure will support their true purpose.
It is probably a bit hard for a startup at this point, unless they just develop and license tech. The major cost and barrier to market is probably still in getting regulations through, once these are through though I think there will be lots of startup opportunities.
As well as being linked to the person before you (for fines or something), I imagine you'd be able to send for another car, saying this one is too dirty etc. At which point it would be routed back to a facility of some sort.
Combination of financial and social prevention, automated surveillance and market segmentation will (relatively easily) take care of this. I don't see how it could be a showstopper.
In fact, I think self-driving cars together with decent electric engines (which already exist) can revolutionize urban landscape.
Just imagine how quiet and pollution free our cities will be if the only traffic allowed inside are electric cars, who automatically go to charge themselves when necessary.
This could work incredibly well especially in urban areas. At least here in Europe, more and more cities are experimenting with traffic limitations in the inner city core, but this also has big drawbacks. Coupled with a cheap self-driving electric cars service, on the other hand...
Economically that seems like a wonderful idea, but politically it sounds doomed to failure. Taxi drivers tend to be pretty well organized politically, and in most cities even have laws in place (usually medallion systems) to limit competition. If they can keep these laws in place with their current very weak justifications, I wouldn't be surprised if they can shut down automated cars very easily, since the public would probably be a bit nervous about the idea anyways.
EDIT: Possibly I'm being too pessimistic. I expect automated cars could be really, really awesome and if so, and if they're allowed anywhere, eventually there'll be pressure in other cities to allow them too.
In many cities there's a distinction between medallion taxis—which you can hail off the street—and livery service—which you need to call for. Since you generally have to take whatever you get get when you hail a cab, the prices are regulated and, in return, the competition is limited.
Generally, the number of livery service drivers and cars is not limited.
That said, the Washington, DC taxi commission has been hassling the Internet-based Uber. Last month they ran a sting against an Uber-arranged driver and impounded his car.[1]
One of my concerns about an automated taxi system is that they'll become dirty and decrepit even faster than public transport because there's an increased level of privacy and nobody to maintain the vehicle between riders. How would you enjoy running late for something and the taxi pulls up, its seats covered in vomit? Eventually, all cars may be scratched up and 'tagged'.
Maybe this won't be as widespread a problem as I think it could be. Zipcar seems to be rather successful, although I've never used one.
Oh, yes. Having a robot taxi pick you up when you need it and disappear when you're done beats finding a parking space any day of the week. +1 city dwellers.
I'd like to be able to give my kids an RFID tag so that I could send them to school when I'm running late, or pick them up after sports practice. Trust will be an issue... but entirely doable.
Zip Car works best in SF, there are cars everywhere, the city is 2nd densest in the country but still a pain to do most errands without a car, cabs suck, and the price is right. Boston is similar, but I have not used ZipCar there.
In NYC it's at least $2/hr more expensive. Cabs become competitive, and there are tons of cabs. There are many more people but not as many cars as SF, so it's harder to get a car. It's mostly good for moving apartments without dealing with U-Haul, going to IKEA/Fairway in Red Hook or picking up craigslist stuff.
I found in LA, the zip cars were so spread out, I first had to figure out how to get someone to drive me 15 minutes to the car.
The downside is that cars could be driving a lot more. Now, instead of a roundtrips each for me and my wife, it is two for me and two for my wife (assuming worst case).
Individually, the costs go down (one car, woot!). Societally, (assuming anthromorphic global warming ;) the cost is much higher.
Of course, with one car, I can afford a far more green car, so maybe it balances out again.
First, I assume by the time that self-driving cars are mass produced we will also have affordable fully-electric cars. Second, I think you mean anthropogenic not anthromorphic ;)...probably.
Or if everyone moves towards self-driving taxi's, then the car takes you to work, then takes someone from near there somewhere else, etc, so you're really talking not much more extra driving, but saving tons on building fewer cars, fewer parking lots, and economies of scales for buying gas and maintaining the cars.
In some cities (including Washington DC) the public transit systems offer incentives for staggering your commute times. (Peak/Peak of the Peak/Off-peak fares).
I imagine something similar would crop up with self-driving cars to alleviate the rush hour capacity issues somewhat.
A setup like this should theoretically be able to optimize carpooling so as to minimize that. A smart automated system should be able to figure out how to efficiently cram 3-5 people into every car by optimizing routes.
Of course, in actuality there would be plenty of people who would demand their own private car out of principle.
I think we should get rid of the 9-5 and have staggered times. Different companies start different times of the day... I'm fairly sure theres a group of who like to start at 10, and go home 6, or maybe start at 11.
> I think we should get rid of the 9-5 and have staggered times. Different companies start different times of the day... I'm fairly sure theres a group of who like to start at 10, and go home 6, or maybe start at 11.
It's worth remembering that companies are free to do this already. Most don't, however, because they want to maximise the amount of overlap with other businesses they need to interact with. It also conveniently fits in with other things in family life, such as the kids going to school, or sports, etc.
Businesses are able to afford this luxury of starting exactly when they wish because they are able to externalize the negatives of it... forcing the employees and road providing governments to take up the slack and suffer the costs. If everyone is taking self-driving taxis, it becomes easier for employees to negotiate that travel expense into the pocket of the employer. Costs should be borne by those making the decisions, else the invisible hand can not do productive work and this economic system has much less rational basis for being the one we choose.
Or your car could drive to a high voltage charging station downtown to recharge. When you need to do more than daily commuting you just rent a normal car.
