I want to applaud your idealism and hard work on building this place but am filled with dread that a year such as 2022 will just be the new normal and extremes will be getting worse at least for the next 30 years.
What gives you hope that it won't just all turn to a desert?
I’m not optimistic (due to climate change, I think the entire US southwest is basically screwed). However, we noticed that people put these in 100+ years ago. They’ve failed due to lack of maintenance, but the place used to look like the “after” pictures, and currently looks like the “before” pictures:
I have a swale on my place from the days when it was farmed. When we bought it they were growing black-eyes, garlic, corn, and various fruits. I think digging bunds like those in photos would be painful here since the soil is very shallow. To get a transplanted tree to grow here I have to dig through two rock ledges that are each about one foot thick (1/3 meter). The rocky clay between them is also only easily dug in the wet part of the year since the clay becomes very hard when it dries so that I need to use a bullprick bar to punch through all the rock. I drill fence posts since there isn't enough dirt to hammer one of those t-posts deep enough to be stable.
I wish I had the soil they have there but farming this land resulted in deflation (soil loss to high wind events) that you can measure by looking at elevation changes along the fence lines and the farmed/unfarmed areas. Like the people in the story, to start the restoration I let my place lay idle for more than a year with no mowing so that all the grasses could set seed multiple times. That helped me reestablish native grasses.
I limit mowing to twice annually now because mowing tends to enable spread of invasive or non-native grasses. Even then I mow in a pattern, starting with areas that I have mostly restored and finishing on the areas that still need some work so that any seeds that drop off of the equipment tend to be native seeds redistributed into areas where I am fighting non-natives. I let the seeds piggyback. It's a process.
I understand what you're feeling. I agree that this year is probably just a step on the steady climb up to a warmer, drier climate for this region. I think in the long-term that we will see wide-spread desertification across large parts of north and northwest Texas. Conservation efforts are lagging changes we already see in climatic conditions, and water usage in the region is still not low enough to be sustainable. Land use practices need to be reevaluated to slow the process.
The long term temperature trend is not favorable for this region. We are lucky though that this year is the third La Nina year (warmer and drier overall in this region) and since it is unusual to see that many consecutive La Ninas, we are due for a reversal to El Nino which tends to be milder and wetter. My only task is to keep as many things healthy as possible so that they can benefit from the more favorable growing conditions.
My own records here show the cyclic variability and demonstrate that the average rainfall should be plenty to support the native plants that I am trying to maintain. In the 20 years that I have been keeping detailed records annual rainfall has varied across a wide range from 19.21" (488 mm) to 68.33" (1736 mm). The average total is 34.37" (873 mm). We are 2/3 of the way through the year and I have accumulated roughly 2/3 of volume from our lowest ever year (2005). It will be interesting to see whether autumn rains push me past that low number.
I'm a geoscientist by training so there is already the knowledge that change is inevitable, but that it usually happens on much longer time scales. I'm fighting a delaying action here. It can work but things will need help so I capture rainwater for dry times since my only water out here comes from rain and from our water well and I don't want to use well water to water lawns or trees. That is why I focus on native plants and trees that are adapted to regional climatic variability.
I'll continue working to keep my place vibrant with native plants and grasses so that maybe in the long term it can be an oasis in the desert for wildlife moving through the area instead of just a great spot for another convenience store for all the people that are leaving the big city and heading out this way.
What gives you hope that it won't just all turn to a desert?