> This conflict will affect 1/4 of the world's wheat which will affect food prices.

That's not 1/4 of worldwide wheat production, but 1/4 of exports of wheat. Those are numbers that differ by orders of magnitude.

Good point!

My main point still stands though.

Edit:

BTW I wish I could edit my previous comment to rectify my mistake but I can't.

The US or Canada or Australia will be more than able to cover the Russian share by switching out crops if Wheat is more profitable given any shortages.

Especially since the US wastes so much agricultural land on maize that they force onto drivers as mandatory ethanol. (While keeping cheaper ethanol from Brazil out of the country with tariffs and regulation.)

If push came to shove, they could drop this silly policy, and alleviate supply shortages.

>that they force onto drivers as mandatory ethanol.

Is that because of some clean energy policy?

Clean energy supposedly, but Iowa is the first primary state for Presidential elections. Guess who makes a lot of ethanol?

Supposedly. But then you wouldn't block cheap ethanol from coming into country, would you?

And see protomyth's comment for more political reasons.

Maybe, but we're already dealing with increasing food and fertilizer costs here in North America. That grain may be produced, but not cheaply.

We should be talking about human lives.

My Ukrainian colleague was terrified for his family today.

> My Ukrainian colleague was terrified for his family today.

I am willing to host up to 10 Ukrainians at my farm in the very south west corner of Poland until further decisions can be made. Only 2 takers so far. Please email my username at gmail if this is interesting to your colleague or to anyone else reading this.

Poland has dropped visa requirements. I can provide some initial legal assistance via a generous family member's donation. I was once a refugee as well. We expect nothing in return.

edit: now at 60% occupancy (maybe) Good luck everyone!

For any Ukrainian HN-ers reading this or for people in here who have relatives/close persons in Ukraine who want to escape the incoming war, for Romania there is this Facebook group [1] where there's a "matching" between what the people in here (in Romania) can offer, like accommodation or transport, and what the people escaping the war in Ukraine might need. The discussions in there are generally in Romanian and/or English, but as far as I could tell there was a decent amount of (Romanian) people offering accommodation to Ukrainian refugees. Sorry for the FB link but that's one of the few such things available right now.

Also, I can personally offer transport with my personal car (meaning 3 extra adults or 2 adults and 2 kids) from anywhere on the Ukrainian-Romanian border to anywhere else in Romania, if any of the HN-ers in here has someone close/a relative who needs that kind of transport inside Romania then leave a reply to this comment and we'll see about making contact/getting in touch.

[1] https://www.facebook.com/groups/unitipentruucraina

You are a good person.

I’m about as far away as one could get from this situation, is there anything I could do to help?

I left Poland with my mom and $500 right as tanks started rolling, that was 41 years ago. I currently live alone in a giant farm house I was about to renovate for rental. This is the least I could do and it's actually easy. So far it is older folks coming. I look forward to learning some nice Ukrainian recipes from these people!

In general, if you want to help, have a look at https://www.givewell.org/ and just pick any one of their top charities.

(Yes, their top charities don't necessarily have anything to do with whatever cause is currently in the news.)

You think a global increase of food prices will not have an effect on human lives?

>> We should be talking about human lives.

>> My Ukrainian colleague was terrified for his family today.

> You think a global increase of food prices will not have an effect on human lives?

Not nearly the same kind as the one the GP is referring to.

Regular food, no bombings = very few dies for unrelated causes

Regular food, non-WMD bombings = many die, directly

Irregular food, regardless of bombings = many millions might die or be severely impacted in the long-term

> Irregular food, regardless of bombings = many millions might die or be severely impacted in the long-term

That's speculation that depends very much on the precise details. The ancestor comment said:

>>>>> In 2010 Russia stopped exporting wheat due to wildfires burning their fields (most likely caused by climate change). This caused a hike in food prices which helped trigger the Arab revolutions in 2011.

Did "many millions ... die" in 2011?

Also wheat is fungible, and Russia is still growing grain and will still be able to export it, just maybe not to the usual places. So maybe China buys more Russian wheat and less American, and the American wheat goes to Europe or Africa instead of China. There can be disruptions with things continuing to more or less balance out.

Russia messed with grain supply in Ukraine in the 30’s and kept exporting while many millions of Ukrainians starved. I’m not sure any part of your comment would be reassuring to Ukrainian.

That's was a very different level of 'messing'.

I agree completely. I feel shocked, I can't quite yet comprehend, what has happened. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the same for most of my peers in my country, i.e. germany.

Edit: Slight mistake.

I think the "missiles on civilians" narrative has been exaggerated.

There are up to 10 civilian casualties so far, so it would have been easier to die of covid or even pollution than bombs in Ukraine in the past 2 days.

report of a kindergarten being hit just now.

that didn't age well.