So in short I don't know. I took a guess, and I did so after weighing what I assume to be the motivations of the actors
Well, that's precisely the wrong thing to do.
The right thing to do, when you don't have enough evidence, is to say "I don't know". You can then go on to say "I think the preponderance of evidence is on one side or another", but you certainly shouldn't go round believing things.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen.
I don't have all the evidence. I weigh the evidence I have, and believe the preponderance of evidence is on one side or another. You call it think, but really there's no difference between that and believing. If you think so you're living a lie that perpetuates this masquerade of believing we're partaking in science and in effect elevates this swinish political discussion to the level of science.
Well, that's precisely the wrong thing to do.
The right thing to do, when you don't have enough evidence, is to say "I don't know". You can then go on to say "I think the preponderance of evidence is on one side or another", but you certainly shouldn't go round believing things.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen.