> The USA currently has nine million active cases. I actually think at this point if you have cold symptoms it may be more likely you have covid than a common cold.
Your intuition is wildly off-base here. Nearly all of us catch at least one cold a year, mostly during the winter months. There are, quite literally, hundreds of millions of colds a year. There's also ~half a dozen viruses in circulation at any given time that cause cold-like symptoms, vs. one for SARS-CoV2.
The steps we are taking to reduce COVID spread also reduce the spread of the cold. I would be absolutely shocked if we don't end up having our lowest impact cold and flu season in decades this year. That isn't to say the grandparent comment is correct, just that you can't really use a comparison from prior years as an indication of how many people will get a cold this year.
In the first 6 months of 2020, Australian influenza deaths were down over 90%, attributed to Covid anti measures - mostly increased hand washing/sanitising, social distancing, and school closures.
If we assume that's representative of a 90% reduction in flu and cold cases (not guaranteed, but probably a reasonable estimate to reason about), then perhaps instead of "hundreds of millions" of cases, it might be down to "tens of millions of cases" of cold/flu. So maybe 9 million Covid cases means any cold/flu symptoms are somewhere between 50% and 10% likely to be Covid - a virus currently killing ~1% of the people it infects.
I am certain the prudent thing to do in 2021 is assume _any_ cold/flu symptoms are likely to be a virus that's quite capable of killing you (and/or the people around you) and act accordingly until you are 100% certain it's not. (Which probably means 2 negative PCR tests ~10 days apart.)
> The steps we are taking to reduce COVID spread also reduce the spread of the cold.
...and cases are going up, so it's probably safe to assume that there are lots of colds being transmitted, as well. And as I said, there are many cold viruses in circulation, at all times.
Even if you believe that "the steps we are taking" are working, you have to assume that they're disproportionately effective for the common cold in order to make the statement the OP was making. Say what you will about SARS-CoV2, but it's more-or-less like any other respiratory virus in terms of transmission characteristics. There's no particular reason to believe that anything we're doing would stop rhinovirus or RSV, but not SARS-CoV2.
This doesn't follow at all because you are comparing the current state of laxing COVID precautions to the previous state of near zero cold precautions. For example, tens of millions of people are currently working from home and the workplace is one of the primary places colds spread. If we treated COVID like the cold we would already be on the other side of the pandemic because it would have already ripped through the population and millions would be dead.
> This doesn't follow at all because you are comparing the current state of laxing COVID precautions to the previous state of near zero cold precautions.
I am not. There are, right now, 5-6 cold viruses in common circulation. There is one SARS-CoV2 virus.
Nothing we are doing would be expected to suppress other respiratory viruses, but not this one.
>I am not. There are, right now, 5-6 cold viruses in common circulation. There is one SARS-CoV2 virus.
Yes you were. In your first comment you said "Nearly all of us catch at least one cold a year, mostly during the winter months. There are, quite literally, hundreds of millions of colds a year." Those are numbers in a normal cold year. This isn't a normal cold year.
>Nothing we are doing would be expected to suppress other respiratory viruses, but not this one.
I'm not sure where this line of argument came from as no one was arguing against it. The assumption is that these COVID precautions are equally effective against the cold, flu, COVID, and other similar respiratory diseases. This will lead to a huge drop in those non-COVID diseases as the precautions we are taking are so drastic compared to a normal year.
> Yes you were. In your first comment you said "Nearly all of us catch at least one cold a year, mostly during the winter months. There are, quite literally, hundreds of millions of colds a year." Those are numbers in a normal cold year. This isn't a normal cold year.
You can divide the number by any factor you want, but there are still ~6x the number of viruses out there causing colds. Even now.
>there are still ~6x the number of viruses out there causing colds
The variety of viruses is totally irrelevant to the original question of what are one's odds of having COVID based on having cold symptoms. The only piece of information that matters for that are the aggregate numbers and aggregate numbers from previous years are misleading.
> The variety of viruses is totally irrelevant to the original question of what are one's odds of having COVID based on having cold symptoms.
It is an essential factor, unless you make the (implausible) assumption that we have essentially eliminated all other respiratory viruses except for SARS-CoV2.
I like how you cutoff the my quote at the exact point that shows you how you are wrong. As I said "The only piece of information that matters for that are the aggregate numbers".
Whether there is 1 version, 6 different versions, or 1 million different versions of colds is irrelevant to your odds of having COVID when you show symptoms. What matters is whether there is 1 person, 6 people, or 1 million people with colds. The variety is meaningless. What matters is the aggregate number of cases.
> The variety of viruses is totally irrelevant to the original question of what are one's odds of having COVID based on having cold symptoms. The only piece of information that matters for that are the aggregate numbers and aggregate numbers from previous years are misleading.
It is an essential factor, unless you make the (implausible) assumption that we have essentially eliminated all other respiratory viruses except for SARS-CoV2.
I catch colds roughly 7-8 times per year. It sometimes feels like I have cold symptoms more days than I don’t. I currently have cold symptoms. If I had to isolate every day I had a cough, sore throat, congestion, or sneezing, I’d be under house arrest most of the year. I think it’s vitally important that we have accurate COVID tests that can definitively distinguish a case of the cold from a case of COVID.
At the end of the day everything is a judgement call. In this case I believe you're an outlier, guidelines are usually structured for the general case. Should you specifically treat every cold like it could be COVID? Maybe not, but should somebody else who gets sick only 1-3 times a year treat every cold like it could be COVID? That seems a lot more reasonable.
Not to mention it is wise and courteous to stay home and avoid exposing yourself to lots of people when you are sick regardless of if its COVID or not.
Not everyone can afford to stay home with minor illness. Not everyone will be employed if they stay home and can't "cover" their days off with measly 40 hrs a year of paid time for such purpose ( if they have any paid time at all).
This issue existed long before COVID. COVID is spreading partially due to this issue. Many people have no choice but work to avoid homelessness and/or hunger.
You should be tested for primary immune deficiency, based on the frequency of your colds alone. If you do have primary immunodeficiency, it is treatable with subcutaneous immunoglobulin, in most cases. Either way, it is treatable.
I am personally on subcutaneous immunoglobulin for two rare immune-mediated neurological diseases, and I have not had a cold in over 3 years, when I would get them a couple of times per year. It helps tremendously.
These are the 10 warning signs of primary immune deficiency in adults:
Adults
If you have two or more of these signs, speak to your doctor about a possible Primary Immunodeficiency.
1. Two or more new ear infections within 1 year
2. Two or more new sinus infections within 1 year, in the absence of allergy
For the broader point, regardless whether or not someone is more likely to have a common cold or COVID given the same group of symptoms, I think the point stands that if someone has symptoms consistent with COVID they should proceed as-if they have COVID -- especially given the current case rate in US.
Are you sure? Do nearly all of us catch a cold _this_ year? I know the flu is way down this year due to covid-related behavioral changes. I'd be surprised if common colds are unaffected.
Your intuition is wildly off-base here. Nearly all of us catch at least one cold a year, mostly during the winter months. There are, quite literally, hundreds of millions of colds a year. There's also ~half a dozen viruses in circulation at any given time that cause cold-like symptoms, vs. one for SARS-CoV2.