I also related it to Monty Hall in that one option is two options bundled together.
The options are not [Heads||Tails] but rather [Heads||Tails+Tails]. The Tails+Tails is like having the Car+Goat bundled as a single option.
Sleeping Beauty knows the coin is 50/50 but that if she is woken there is more opportunity to be woken during a Tails flip.
To show that it is biased in favor of Tails - the experiment must be repeated. It shows more readily if you increase the number of times she is woken if the coin lands on Tails, similar to how the Monty Hall problem becomes more intuitive when you increase the number of doors.
Instead of being woken 2 times - let's have her woken 1,000 times. Every time she is woken she is asked if the coin was Heads or Tails, with no recollection of her previous answers. She is given a dollar for every time she is correct. Should she guess Heads or Tails?
If she guesses Heads every time - she can only win $1. If she guesses Tails every time - she can win $1,000. If she alternates answers she can only win $500.
The options are not [Heads||Tails] but rather [Heads||Tails+Tails]. The Tails+Tails is like having the Car+Goat bundled as a single option.
Sleeping Beauty knows the coin is 50/50 but that if she is woken there is more opportunity to be woken during a Tails flip.
To show that it is biased in favor of Tails - the experiment must be repeated. It shows more readily if you increase the number of times she is woken if the coin lands on Tails, similar to how the Monty Hall problem becomes more intuitive when you increase the number of doors.
Instead of being woken 2 times - let's have her woken 1,000 times. Every time she is woken she is asked if the coin was Heads or Tails, with no recollection of her previous answers. She is given a dollar for every time she is correct. Should she guess Heads or Tails?
If she guesses Heads every time - she can only win $1. If she guesses Tails every time - she can win $1,000. If she alternates answers she can only win $500.