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This feels like a sign of something very bad happening soon

Is soon now?

When will then become now?

https://youtu.be/nRGCZh5A8T4?t=73


sometime in the past

What kind of thing ? Shortages ?

The end of owned hardware. In the glorious future, you will rent your hardware and you will like it.

That makes sense, most LLMs are rented out, software could be next if RAM prices keep increasing 2x every 8 months

We're already in a shortage (of RAM). Price increases should be a motivator to increase production. This is the system working.

Will there be increase in production if the 3 companies that make the RAM decide they can profit more by keeping production mostly the same and flogging it for 10x the price of a couple of years ago to a few AI companies happy to burn cash?

The only hope is China spoils the party.


China spoiling the party is still the system working though. The price of ram is so high that it makes sense for new producers to start to exist. The fact that all the ram in the world comes from 3 suppliers is a big problem, and the high prices are a forcing function for solving that problem

> This is the system working.

Something one could say about a high fever being a sign of the immune system working. There are obvious temporary and permanent risks to how the system works, and there are limits beyond which everything simply breaks down. It's best not to have a fever at all.


> It's best not to have a fever at all.

Well put. Indeed non-free market solutions typically rely on some impossible conditions, in your comparison that would be "just don't get sick". But people will get sick. You can't just "not have a fever at all".


> "just don't get sick". But people will get sick. You can't just "not have a fever at all".

PPE, quarantining and other containment measures exist to broadly prevent sickness, but I imagine not in a universe that is about the free market at all costs, to strain the allegory further. If people keep getting sick with a recognizable pattern, someone ought to look into that, and prevent future outbreaks.


> PPE, quarantining and other containment measures exist to broadly prevent sickness

But people won't wear PPE and quarantine and do other containment measures (and not because of free market). Also PPE, quarantining and other containment measures are not perfect and probably will never be. So yeah, again naive, idealistic view that perfectly fits naive anti-free market narratives that require impossible conditions to work.


We're in a pretty big bubble predicated on the idea that AI is going to have a lot more value than it actually will. Not that it's not going to be useful, it just isn't going to be the incredible force multiplier the market thinks it is. This speculation, gas prices, tariffs, etc. are going to result in a 2009-ish bubble pop I'm guessing which will be triggered by particularly bad private credit default news (perhaps a sizable bank failing?) and or some major news triggering the reevaluation of the AI hype poking at some systemic banking issue or another.

I'm not saying your wrong, and I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but when I read your comment, I uncontrollably began imagining I was reading one of those reader-submitted comments in a newspaper about the internet in the 90s. Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, but I was somehow teleported to a future in which AI is ever-present in the same way the net is now and trying to reconcile your viewpoint, which was impossible.

Of course, my hallucination does not dismiss the possibility that we are in a bubble. Wasn't CSCO something like 200x PE during the dot com bubble? People see immense potential in an idea but don't know how to properly price it, and so we get what is seen as essentially infinite expected growth priced into companies and their products.

My $3k laptop has nearly the best components on the market right now. The problem is that it has a poor build (MSI) and is falling apart in a way that's not repairable. I looked into purchasing an equivalent-or-better laptop, and I couldn't find anything under $6 for essentially the same specs, and over $10k for a significant upgrade. Though I need my laptop for work, I decided just to ride it out till it's death.


More like a global economic depression

For real. There has to be an RSS fan high up in the company, because RSS allows users to bypass the very thing YT are pushing so hard for i.e. recommendations and shorts.


Coverage is still partial because some VERY popular games do not run on Linux due to anti-cheat


I'd say that coverage is very, very substantial, but incomplete because some games use anti-cheat that is either extremely invasive and heavily relies on Windows internals, or is anti-cheat that the devs have configured to reject running in Proton.


Yes, it's very good. However, basically-every-current-multiplayer-shooter is a big missing category.


BTW as someone increasingly fed up with W11 and thus feeling homeless: how well does VR work?


> basically-every-current-multiplayer-shooter is a big missing category.

Weird. I've been playing many multiplayer shooters from Proton with my Windows-using friends. I suppose this is one of those "am I friends with people who pretty much only play CoD or Fortnite?" things.


Anything you'd want to play runs on Linux.

One that people keep commenting on is Battlefield 6, which has an absolutely perfect user experience in Linux.

If you play it on Windows it's a slow, buggy, crashy, half-finished mess that barely works is just no fun at all.

On Linux, it's perfect. It doesn't work at all, so you don't waste any time trying to enjoy the slow, buggy, crashy, half-finished mess.


> At the start of the year, Microsoft generated a lot of goodwill among Windows 11 fans when it announced its big plan to fix the operating system in 2026

The only thing generated was boatloads of incredulity and some laughs.


Yeah, I remember the same. Also, "Windows 11 fans" sounds like an oxymoron.


Might be considered "Windows 11 Hostages" instead given they've dropped support for using anything else.


Wondering how long I can hold out on Win10...


It could relate to the amount of *pu and system fans needed to run so much bloatware :)


So why did they make taskbar bottom only in the first place? Too difficult to implement? Branding? No room for ads when it's vertical?


Because the Apple dock is bottom-only too, and the Microsoft UI designers are using Macs.


It's not though. You can pin it to the side.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong cause I don't recall where I got this understanding from, but I believe Windows 11 still has the Windows 10 taskbar, but a startup process basically hides it and replaces it with a brand new one they made for Windows 11, built with web technologies. And they probably just never got around to figuring out how to put it somewhere else on the screen since they didn't inherit that behaviour from before.


The assigned LLM junior could not prompt out the required <div>s.


It doesn't use web technologies


Performance. They couldn't even handle seconds in the clock on win11 release.


It cracks me up that the toggle for this advises you that it will cause your battery to die faster


Displaying seconds on macOS also causes higher CPU usage for WindowServer.


Too late, idiots. Just as Windows 10 was being retired, you ran the craziest anti-marketing campaign I've ever seen and successfully coaxed me into switching my daily driver to Linux. Until this year, I've been using windows my ENTIRE life.


I recently started a new role and have to use Windows for work.

I am seriously thinking of looking for another role because it is such a HOG.


I'm in the same boat, have to use Windows at work. In addition to whatver MS is doing, every workstation is encumbered with various EDR and antivirus software.


Throw in some docker workloads and it's a party.


Literally installing Arch right now as I read this. Same deal, been using windows as my daily driver all my life but have been running Linux servers since late 90s (and did daily drive RedHat back in the day).

My work env was just VS Code + WSL and I realized the most pain points came from using Explorer and trying to admin the machine with the fractured landscape of sys admin tools. For me it became very obvious that windows is only going to get more bloated and less “my” machine going forward, why stay on this platform if I’m already spending most of my day in a Linux environment (that I’m already familiar with).


I have a feeling it's too little, too late, even if it's completely true and sincere, which I doubt at this point.

I can't help but wonder if they're in the process of losing an entire generation of tech enthusiasts to Linux and maybe MacOS. And the rest of the world tends to slowly follow the tech enthusiasts.


Windows 10 is my last Microsoft Windows operating system. Between the fact that I had to turn of TPM in the bios so that I wouldn't wake up one day turn on my computer and see Windows 11. The massive bugs that prevent things like power off. The insane push for AI in everything (notepad? really?).

I know a scam when I see one, and Windows 11 is a scam.


Reminds me of the Xbox One release disaster, and the push for Kinect and TV streaming support.


this isn't new, microsoft has been doing this to its customers for years


For sure, but 11 is on a whole new level in my experience.


Many problems in the world would be solved if people actually read Economics 101.


Agreed, and the intention here isn't to block any particular policy outcome, it's to ask that you narrowly scope your tools to what can work, instead of being the 20th failed attempt at price controls or tariffs. (And Econ 101 will teach you when tariffs can make sense, too)


Surprisingly few Americans can read, and surprisingly fewer at a college level.


I was an econ major, and a lot of the lower level courses were required for business majors.

It was genuinely shocking how many people from the latter group just could not understand the absolute basics of supply curves and demand curves.

The upside is that I was able to help them understand it by offering tutoring, where I was in limited supply, and there was endless demand for my services!


I get your point, but literacy rate is high in the US, so most Americans can, in fact, read.

However, they rarely read books and indeed most don’t read at a university level.

Rarely reading books is also not tied strictly to the US.


Studies consistently find about 20% of Americans are functionally illiterate, depending on what is meant by functionally illiterate. Typically this means that they can read, but frequently cannot grasp the meaning of what they read.

The US is actually pretty illiterate compared to peer countries.


Higher than I expected although I’m not totally surprised given the US educational system.


Does reading Econ 101 make one okay with losing their industrial base to a competitor that hasn't bought into the free market dogma?


It gives a few reasons why you're still not getting that industrial base back, even after tariffs.


Oh it teaches you to resign yourself to slow decline? A very useful class then, I can see why it is so lauded.


tonsky.me is a troll site that should be banned from being posted on HN


Or you could just lighten up and get a sense of humor...


What's trollish about his blog ?


Author seems to enjoy writing posts that get lots of votes on site that I would describe as eye-rending, especially the "normal" yellow color scheme. It's aggressively unpleasant to read.


How is it trolling, though? Annoying, sure. But the content here is valid and worth reading, even if the medium is suboptimal.


I use Firefox because I don't want to use a browser provided by an advertising company e.g. Chrome.


Yet ... with firefox that is exactly what you are using. Except there's a proxy in the middle (Mozilla).


It isn't even indirect anymore since Mozilla bought an advertising company.


I'm raising my hands, you got me.


Just one that is entirely funded by an advertising company?


There are three browsers: FF, Chrome, Safari. I'm not on Apple so FF is the least worst option.


>Windows itself is about to change in a really big way such that it already requires AI-specific hardware

The AI models that everyone wants to use are cloud based. What is the purpose of AI hardware on users' machine?


Local processing of privacy-sensitive data, that is: personal files and what is shown on screen. Just think about Recall.


The purpose of AI hardware on users' machine is that then MS can hand-wave away any privacy concerns, claiming that anything sensitive is handled on-device.


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