Where do you see a difference? Like you said, there is a libertarian argument that can be made for why insider trading is desirable. If the bet is easily manipulable, like how many times someone will visit a place, then the rational response is for others not to bet on that market. The same argument still holds.
You can disagree with the libertarian argument, but I don't see how you can say that Polymarket et al. are something other than a prediction market. Can you explain where you see the difference?
It’s not a libertarian argument for prediction markets that they should have insider trading, it’s the point of the exercise. The way they work is to incentivize people with knowledge to externalize the knowledge to the market. The concept of fairness doesn’t even make sense in that context.
So if a market is trying to maintain a veneer of fairness it’s just using a prediction market as cover and is something else.
So the difference between a theoretically pure prediction market and Kalshi is ... this interview? The CEO saying that he thinks others, who do not answer to him in any way, will be doing something to enforce some notion of fairness.
If you're being that puritan about the definition, then having a "real" prediction market is completely impossible. Because actors like the DOJ do not wait for a statement by the Kalshi CEO to bring charges. And rational actors will know and anticipate that, and hence preemptively comply. So you never get the unfettered version of a prediction market.
I don't think it makes sense to be that puritan about a definition that the thing it's trying to define becomes an impossibility. Polymarket, Kalshi et al are clearly prediction markets in the messy reality that we live in, and we're figuring out as we go what the legal reality of a real-world prediction market is and should be.
Kalshi is in fact more strict, both defining and punishing insider trading, than CFTC/DOJ. Kalshi is perfectly happy to hand out bans and fines for activity the government doesn't care about. Every Kalshi market has a button on it, "report insider trading" which I'm sure is clicked a zillion times a day by gamblers who are upset they lost.
The reason they do these things is that their first priority is to keep the gamblers happy, and the gamblers hate to think they got cheated.
This just gestures at the meta-problem with prediction markets, who pays for the alpha? With stocks, companies generate returns to capital. With commodities, there are buyers and sellers of the underlying. But there is very little economic usefulness about most prediction markets, especially by volume. The only way to get enough users to justify the effort to figure out accurate prices, is to turn it into an entertainment product. And in an entertainment product, if the customer doesn't like X, then you crack down on X.
It's in no way a meaningful solution. If you're settling for a resolution, you don't need a ball-rolling analogy. We already know the length of a given coastline at given resolutions (ignoring the constant changing of the coastline itself). What's practically not feasible is getting every country on earth to agree on the right resolutions. And that's for good reasons, because the desired accuracy depends on many factors, some situational and harder to quantify than just size of the enclosed land mass.
You don't need anyone else to agree on the resolution.
You can just pick one when you are doing some work that requires knowing the length of the coastline.
I wasn't trying to say that we should all agree on a universal definition and use that for everything? That would be insane. I was just providing a way to get a stable answer for the length of the perimeter of a fractal area.
Why would it be insane? We have globally accepted answers for the area of each country (modulo territorial disputes, geological changes and similar). One would expect the same thing to be possible for the circumference. So to most people it will be a surprise that it is, in fact, impossible. It is mathematically impossible because the problem is underdetermined, and it is practically impossible because agreeing internationally on how to fully determine the mathematical problem seems unrealistic.
Awe-inspring. But one thing I don't get: he says he wants every building to be included, but the buildings in NYC are anything but permanent. Did he pick a particular timestamp for everything, or is it a mosaic of different epochs? Keeping the model up to date would be even more insane.
I might have to visit this exhibit next time I'm in NY. I hope their materials will answer the question of how he dealt with new construction, remodels, and demolitions over his 20 years!
In what sense was the policy wrong? Emphasizing independence when it comes to security doesn't strike me as self-evidently wrong. Curious to hear your arguments. "They were very happy about it 60 years later" alone isn't evidence of it being wrong.
IIRC, De Gaulle & Churchill proposed a UK-FR union at one point (1940?) but it didn't get sufficient support within the French government. Interesting to ponder what the war and later EU trajectories might have looked like if that had happened.
That union was a last ditch effort to try and keep France in the war. If they had implemented it, it would have been undone once the nazis were beaten you can be sure.
That was also a last-ditch effort to maintain pre-WW2 geopolitical structures rather than a bipolar US-sphere vs Soviet-sphere world. Note that this was basically the nail in the coffin that led to their full-fledged decolonization in the following years. At the time the UK still held very significant military and political sway over the middle east, east africa, and asia
From my recollection, the plan was to grant French citizenship to every British citizen and vice versa, in effect "forcing" the governments to defend their citizens to the end. This was very ambitious, hence why it probably did not happen.
But if it had happen, I have a hard time seeing how it could be undone, stripping people of their citizenship, even if they have a second one is no trivial matter.
There are many good options for text editing, some for presentations, but what about spreadsheets? Using Python/R/SQL everywhere ain't no panacea, spreadsheets are really useful in some cases and LO has the best implementation I've seen apart from Excel.
The Venn diagram of people who have deep understanding of capital markets and people who like betting on stuff will have non-negligible overlap. Read some of the stories about Wall Street, especially from before it was all algorithms. Moreover, evidence of apparent insider trading on Polymarket, specifically for OpenAI, has already been shared on HN. Sounds pretty crazy to me to suggest that those odds can't tell us anything about the true probabilities. What's your reasoning?
Paying to write someone (ie, physical mail) was the standard for all communication before we had widespread telefax/internet messaging adoption. I don't know how bad the spam problem was there, but the concept doesn't strike me as being necessarily awful. What's your concern?
For every legit paper mail, I've had 5-10 garbage leaflet advertisements shoved into my mailbox by half-legally working teenagers earning $1-2/h in exchange for everyone's annoyance. 99% of these went into trash immediately without looking.
You can disagree with the libertarian argument, but I don't see how you can say that Polymarket et al. are something other than a prediction market. Can you explain where you see the difference?
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