Sadly, Morgan Stanley suggests that the release of this information may result in invoking the "Osbourne Effect." Osbourne Computer, decades ago, released information about a great new future model. This resulted in customers refraining from buying the current Osbourne model, resulting in steep losses and bankruptcy. Not to say bankruptcy will happen to Rivian, but many customers may refrain from buying the current R1 model, and instead opt for the future R2 model, which may result in a bad quarter or two for Rivian. FWIW. Rivian seems to have amazing technology in the works, but investors may be in for a bumpy ride until a successful R2 rollout ... according to Morgan Stanley (which may be conflicted by their business with Tesla).
>>Morgan Stanley suggests that the release of this information may result in invoking the "Osbourne Effect." Osbourne Computer, decades ago, released information about a great new future model. This resulted in customers refraining from buying the current Osbourne model, resulting in steep losses and bankruptcy.
Sadly that did not work for Tesla, and the promises of FSD next year...for the last 10 years...
It’s literally called the FSD computer and the software is called “supervised”. So if anything they’re directly claiming it’s a hardware accomplishment while the software is lesser
Their production stack is explicitly multi-sensor, and LiDAR is a primary source for metric 3D geometry plus localization and cameras are mainly for semantics. Waymo documents the Waymo Driver as LiDAR plus cameras plus radar.
Waymo uses both LIDAR and RADAR to collect precise data on distance and speed. If it's foggy (commonly the case in SF) those two let the service continue with no interruptions.
A Tesla in those conditions would hopefully refuse to drive itself, but for some reason I think it would just drive badly and pretend that it was doing something safe.
I was going to say the opposite: that unlike back in the Osbourne days, consumers today understand that there will always be “something better” announced soon, and they’re used to making purchase decisions anyway.
“a data center full of GPUs is like a warehouse full of bananas, that’s got a relatively short half life in terms of its usefulness.”
Anyone else know the history of the canal system in the US state of Indiana? The State got sunk so heavily into debt building so many soon-to-be-obselete canals, that they ended up passing a balanced budget amendment.
Another reason to be skeptical about current computing technologies, is the potential of quantum computing. Much about the quantum world can only be understood using matrix math, so intuitively, quantum computers may be ideally suited for AI applications which also rely on matrix math. If I am oversimplifying this, please chime in.
It's very harsh to learn this after earning a couple science degrees and working in analytical and research environments where little "bullshitting" is done, although obviously those doing the selling, getting funding, seeking to get hired or promoted, can't avoid some degree of self-promotion as a necessary evil. But now, shameless self promotion and deception tends to be the rule, especially in online marketing, political posturing... we all know it very well now. Anything to get more eyeballs on the screen, better metrics. Of course we were all raised on television advertising, and now we are dealing with an obesity crisis due to heavily promoted junk food, so now, very expensive weight loss drugs are promoted heavily. First some ads make us sick, then others come to our rescue, in that perspective. What Charles Hugh Smith calls, burning the village to save the village. Downvote away, it won't hurt me a bit.
it's a thoughtful discussion, but why bring Covid vaccines into it?
My ldl-c numbers are lower than my wife. We both are in the top few percent of the population for exercise measured in weekly steps. I don't take statins, she does. But her numbers have been going up, while mine have been dropping. I get more fiber though. Clearly, statin therapy is questionable based on this small sample size.
Rivian has extremely fast custom chips incorporating LIDAR data. Sounds like Musk needs to focus on his job more in some areas. Rivian may be the safest autonomy bet in the world. TSMC makes the chips. The LIDAR is almost unnoticeable on the outside of the vehicle.
Also missing is the fact that sweetheart deals are made between govt and large employers to place employees in their location. Likewise with tariffs (if you love them or hate them, it doesn't matter) - some new labor demand is inevitable, even if it's mostly robotics folks. Nothing wrong with the author, just missing some nuances.
