Psychology is malleable, and consumption patterns beyond food and shelter are driven largely by psychology. In the great depression, consumption behavior of an entire generation was permanently changed, no matter how much better the economy got. Those mental scars lasted forever.
What percentage of the population will watch a parent, spouse, best friend, or grandparent slowly asphyxiate to death and develop a lifetime aversion to casual dining, tourism, mall shopping, non-business air travel, fast food, staying in hotels, visiting family for holidays, casino gambling, meeting with potential clients, going to class, etc?
And then what are the second order effects of not needing the suits/ties/dresses, jetliner inventory, commercial real estate, gasoline, cruise ships, university buildings, casinos, etc required for the above activities?
Which of the economic sectors predicated on those activities will "bounce back"? What is the current high-yield debt load associated with these sectors?
Or the Great War, famines in Europe and 1918 flu pandemic? Which was followed by the roaring 20's. As to what % of the population will watched a loved one die and then retrench psychologically for an extended period of time? IMO, a very very small percentage. History has seen people suffer much much MUCH worse loss and then bounce back with a vengeance shortly afterwards.
People and societies are not as fragile as many people seem to imagine today. People and societies are, in fact, quite resilient. They can withstand the horrors of war, plague, famine and more. And then bounce back rapidly within a few years. I'm not trying to minimize the sorrow or severity of those that suffer from this pandemic. But relative to past mass trauma, there is little to suggest it's a major turning point in global culture.
Right. Common belief in 1930-1931, too.
Psychology is malleable, and consumption patterns beyond food and shelter are driven largely by psychology. In the great depression, consumption behavior of an entire generation was permanently changed, no matter how much better the economy got. Those mental scars lasted forever.
What percentage of the population will watch a parent, spouse, best friend, or grandparent slowly asphyxiate to death and develop a lifetime aversion to casual dining, tourism, mall shopping, non-business air travel, fast food, staying in hotels, visiting family for holidays, casino gambling, meeting with potential clients, going to class, etc?
And then what are the second order effects of not needing the suits/ties/dresses, jetliner inventory, commercial real estate, gasoline, cruise ships, university buildings, casinos, etc required for the above activities?
Which of the economic sectors predicated on those activities will "bounce back"? What is the current high-yield debt load associated with these sectors?